An Economic Study on the Projected Population Growth in Libya by the Year 2030

Abstract:
Although Libya is one of the least densely populated countries relative to its total land area—making it among the lowest globally in terms of population density (people per square kilometer)—it has witnessed some of the world’s highest population growth rates over the past three decades. This population growth was driven by several factors, most notably the state's strong focus on the social sector and its substantial economic investments in social development, particularly through development policies and programs funded by the country’s increasing oil revenues from the early 1970s until the mid-1980s.

In this study, we adopted three alternative scenarios for population projections over the next three decades, based primarily on qualitative and cultural assumptions about future Libyan society. The results suggest a turning point in population growth rates by the year 2020, with annual growth stabilizing at around 2% in the first scenario, and rising to 2.5% and 3% in the second and third scenarios, respectively.

The projections indicate that:

• Libya’s population is expected to double over the next 30 years under the first scenario.
• Under the other scenarios, population growth will slightly exceed a doubling, and in the third scenario, it could approach a tripling by the end of the projection period.

Keywords:
Libya – Population Growth – Forecasting – Population Size